The outlook on the dollar exchange rate in 2019 Hazin

Over the last year the head of the company "Neocon" Mikhail Khazin moved to guru status. Economist answered questions dp.ru readers told about the timing of the devaluation, the resignation of Putin and what would happen if turn off the printing press in the United States.

dp.ru: You often talk about the confrontation between two economic systems - the socialist and the US. On the first with obvious sympathy. What you like more socialism - Byelorussian, Swedish or our own?

Michael Khazin: I'm saying is that the capitalist model is today the world will not save. For her, the model is no more. Socialist theory could come to replace it today. Generally speaking, I believe that should be based on the correct value basis. The concept of justice, which is the basis of the socialist model, I was quite happy ... At least we can talk about. The model, based on the basic value which is profit, I absolutely do not like.

dp.ru: That is our future - socialism?

Mikhail Khazin: Outlook can see, the model ... It is necessary to watch, as it will exist.

dp.ru: Do you think it turns out that in the USSR there was some nedosotsializm?

Mikhail Khazin: You have to understand that the history of the USSR - a common thing. Abandonment of the basic principles of socialist occurred in the USSR in the 1950s. Therefore, the model of socialism still need to work, as it should be.

dp.ru: Why are you talking about the exhaustion of the capitalist model? After all, there are China and India, which are not included in the intake system, ie constitute a resource for the development of capitalism ...

Mikhail Khazin: Today the world is governed by the bankers. They will not agree to rebuild the system so that someone there was power, comparable with them. Now they say that the Soviet authorities, the type of exploited populations, etc.

In fact, everything can be solved very simply . If the government creates a system of raising the educational level of the population, so it works for the benefit of the population. Notice how sharply degraded in our education system in 15 years. It was precisely because of the capitalist power-educated population is not necessary.

It should be clearly understood that, if we try to turn those people today who are not consumers in the consumer, we will almost certainly create a player, equal in the political field. This one will not do. At this even the Chinese go, realizing that if they go to such a revolution, it will create a large number of independent people. The United States controls the world, because they account for 40% of global demand. Japan, Korea, China, live at the expense of emissions in the United States money. US printing money, they buy household products produced in Asia.

Once in the United States off the machine , there are two options.

First - they completely cover the production and live only on what to print dollars and support global demand. Then they retain their market regulation system.

The second option - they close all imports in general and live only on what they themselves produce. In the first case, the standard of living falls to 2 times, the second - close the EU, Japan. To understand the scale was going on, I would say that in recent months, export-import operations in the US fell by 20-30%, the electricity consumption in China fell by 7.5%, which is equivalent to the GDP fall by 10%, because this figure is generally lagging behind.

dp.ru: In the analysis of the current crisis which indicator is more important - change in output or GDP?

Mikhail Khazin: GDP generally pretty dubious figure. I have more confidence in changes in the level of production volumes, and it fell until we are stronger than in Europe. Roughly speaking, in Europe by 10%, and we have 18%.

dp.ru: You stated last year that the exchange rate will fall to 50-60 rubles to the dollar. I fell. Comment.

Mikhail Khazin: No, I have not said so . I said that it would be appropriate, and explain why. But officials in Russia have not recognized it appropriate. Today, I am more and more it becomes clear that no one is willing to take responsibility. Therefore, devaluation will happen later than they should, in the most unfavorable for the Russian edition.

dp.ru: What explains the phenomenon: the announcement of the termination of the crisis and the dollar falls?

Mikhail Khazin: If the crisis is over, the euro is growing, and if not - is growing dollar against the euro. Why? Because if the crisis in the US, it is more acute in Europe. Markets and Europe, and China and Japan are secondary in relation to the US.

dp.ru: What are the chances that Russia will disintegrate within the next 20-30 years?

Mikhail Khazin: Theoretically, there would be virtually depend on developments. Since the quality of governance is very poor, and regional elites almost alone have to solve piled on these problems, you may want to tell Moscow "goodbye", just as it happened with the collapse of the USSR in the late 1980s. The Fall of the Welfare will be an occasion, and the process (if it will) go from the top, by the regional elites.

dp.ru: What are the chances the collapse of the US in the next 20-30 years?

Mikhail Khazin: Another 2 years ago, this question seemed heavy delusions, but today I would say that this probability is.

dp.ru: On the question of changes in the composition. About 2 months ago about Putin's resignation flashed information.

Mikhail Khazin: In the current situation, Putin can not afford to retire.

dp.ru: Do you understand what Medvedev says when he says anything?

Michael Khazin: I am not sure that I understand the same thing, that he understands.

dp.ru: What will happen to the real estate market? Come new companies with affordable prices instead of the bankrupt or administrative resources to win?

Mikhail Khazin: Let's see. Today we have hundreds of thousands of square meters have been built on the appraised value of $ 6-10 thousand Each of these dollars is already painted -. Someone of the officials, not only officials, he will go. Officials did not vitally interested in the fact that people began building shopping, otherwise they do not get those dollars. Therefore, they will slow down the process as much as possible to the market price declines, and therefore, I am inclined to believe that the process of construction of new housing is strongly slowed down, if not stop. This will continue until then, until a restructuring of the already constructed. It will be a long and painful process.

dp.ru: Returning to the question of the revolutionary scenario of change of power. What could be the reason?

Mikhail Khazin: As we taught Lenin, to a revolutionary situation into a revolution, not only in fact objective reasons, need one more factor - the revolutionary party, and we have it today. This is the main problem of modern Russian reality. As said at the time Vysotsky, "this little violent, that no leaders."

dp.ru: What is the cause of universal passivity?

Mikhail Khazin: Difficult question. I, as an ordinary member of society, not lust, arranged to revolution, no matter how fair they are. Revolution almost always end with a lot of blood. But we must understand that if everything will continue to go on as it continues, then all this will end.

dp.ru: You tend to make apocalyptic predictions about the economy as a whole and individual companies. And what about ordinary people?

Mikhail Khazin: Man should be mentally prepared for the fact that life in the coming years will not improve. To be ready for this, it is possible to develop plans.

dp.ru: A year ago, advanced economists said that the main thing - to develop civil society, to invest in liberal values, and then everyone will find a place in society. What should I do now?

Mikhail Khazin: As once said do not remember who, cat Behemoth Azazello or during a performance at the theater variety show: "I congratulate you, the citizen, sovramshi". Those people who praised liberal ... were wrong.

I believe that the liberal model is not a priori enable an individual to achieve anything, because it implies that a person has no means of protection.

It involves the refusal of the state of human protection in an environment where the majority of people to effectively protect themselves can not. There are those who can, someone's conscience does not allow, but it will be a war of one against the other gang. Human interaction is absolutely free always ends very badly.

dp.ru: Previously, the purpose of social and economic policy of 100% of employment was to ensure ...

Mikhail Khazin: which reduces economic efficiency. Today everyone is talking about economic efficiency, but talk about a single element of the whole system is not possible. The fact that the liberal model has shown to be ineffective, it provided the opportunity to uncontrolled bankers do whatever you want, with the result that they are not just robbed the whole of society, but put it on the brink of economic disaster - absolutely liberal principles. Today, society has to get out of this situation. It is very difficult, serious process, we still have no idea how it will look like an economic model after this crisis is over.

dp.ru: Really, from your point of view, it is advantageous economy to have drones, no activity?

Mikhail Khazin: Unemployment has always been. There have always been people who either did not do anything for any reason, even when you're at work or are in search of work. It was low, but it still was. There are different economic models. Within certain admissible unemployment 3% and 5% other. The main thing that was not a situation where the population is thrown overboard without a chance to achieve some results. And they are now thrown away.

Look, unemployment rises . Who will be a very interesting situation. Society phenomenon of financial bubbles has created a variety of its members, as an office plankton: people who are accustomed to getting a big salary for the fact of its existence. They do not know how to work, do not possess any professional skills. If they are fired, they are more likely to cobble together the gang and rob children of the entrances than will be spent on the construction site. This problem is. It is not for the small towns, where there was no plankton, and for Moscow, St. Petersburg is a very serious problem.

dp.ru: What is the basis of your pessimistic forecasts? We recently interviewed companies that have opened business in the midst of crisis. All afloat ...

Mikhail Khazin: God bless! I am opposed to, what? But in general, the economic downturn. Closes factories mass. Some deliberately closed state. I have repeatedly encountered: the plant operates normally, takes credit for working capital. Inspector comes, he says the plan is to raise so much money. Therefore, it imposes a fine on the plant at exactly that amount of money, which is in the account.

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The director says: you are what we are now also close. This is, firstly, the loan, and secondly, the working capital. The inspector said: do not know anything, you can sue, we will refund the money within a year. Director: but it will not be a year of us, people will go to the street, the bank does not receive the money. Inspector: I do not care, I now put the plan. It is absolutely classic example of the attitude of our state to the people who are trying to do something.

dp.ru: This is unprofessional?

Mikhail Khazin: This is sabotage.

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Forecast of the dollar against the hryvnia in 2019 - CREDIT CARD ...

Given the constant fluctuations in exchange rates and the difficult economic situation in the country, with the advent of autumn, many began to talk about what can we expect from the dollar in the next year. Analysts actively give out a variety of predictions, some say the sharp rise in price, other - on a stable course. We also offer you to get acquainted with some predictions that are deemed most relevant.

The forecast of the dollar against the hryvnia in 2019 from the government

The Government has laid the budget for next year. Set here the dollar at a rate of 30 hryvnia and fifty cents.

"The Cabinet of Ministers approved the budget resolution for 2019, 2020 and 2021, in which the predicted rise in price of the dollar to 31.8 hryvnia to the US currency. The decision was taken at a cabinet meeting, reports "The Economic Truth". ( Source 24tv.ua )

However, for 2019, the dollar should not rise above 30.5 hryvnia, although it is only the average expected value.

"In 2020 - 31 hryvnia 40 cents per American" green ", and in 2021 - 31 hryvnia 80 cents per dollar. The average annual rate for 2018 is 29 hryvnia 30 kopecks to the dollar "

Forecast hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar in 2019 by bankers

Bankers are configured not exactly optimistic. They are confident that the price increase can not be avoided or gas, or a dollar, and both hit the pockets of the population. Most likely the price will rise just to the currency, and although likely decline in food prices, it's a communal certainly rise again in value. Thus, it will be possible to neutralize inflation, experts believe.

"If there is no tranche of the IMF, the pressure on the economy will be large, which may accelerate the rate to any value. There is a pessimistic scenario from the National Bank, and they're prescribed, that course will be 40 ", - he admitted the investment banker Sergey Fursa."

The forecast of the dollar in 2019 from the Experts

"I am afraid that the course can overcome the mark of 35 UAH / $ 1 as early as 2019, with the active development of the crisis in the global economy. And maybe even more ", - he summed up the general Shevchishin Andrew, a senior analyst at Forex Club"

financial market experts see different versions of events, and many of them are disappointing for the Ukrainian population. Already, the currency's value has risen above the critical level of twenty-eight dollars, and this is only the beginning of autumn. There are optimistic and pessimistic situation, the development plan for 2019.

"Analysts have given forecasts and the dollar by the end of 2018 and 2019's. Thus, the worst-case scenario the consensus forecast assumes that by the end of 2018 exchange rate could reach 30 UAH / USD, and at the end of 2019 - 34 UAH / USD. According to the optimistic scenario, the national currency exchange rate at the end of 2018 could reach 27 UAH / USD, and at the end of 2019 - 28 UAH / USD. According to the consensus forecast, according to the median of the predicted rate of the national currency by the end of 2018 will be 29.15 UAH / USD at the end of 2019 - 30.42 UAH / USD " (source segodnya.ua)

The forecast of the dollar from the National Bank of Ukraine

The National Bank of Ukraine also considers three scenarios:

"If you focus on negative outlook, it is already the end of the next, 2019 year, the price of the currency could reach retaliation in 39 hryvnia and 40 cents. That such a figure is shown in an official document; According to the results of basic strategy, at the end of next year, the dollar's value is no more than 28 hryvnia and 70 cents. Negative scenario considered in the case of not obtaining tranche, and a sharp decline in the cost of metal, then the dollar will be worth almost 40 hryvnia "

Ukrainians remain hopeful that the huge jump in the dollar still will not. Autumn fluctuations - is an annual event, so do not just tune in to the pessimistic mood.

Without a doubt, the stability of the Ukrainian financial market, the government should cooperate with the international financial creditors, in particular with the IMF. And for the sake of cooperation, the Government takes a lot of steps is not always popular. But even this does not guarantee that the money will still be obtained, and the National Bank of Ukraine is necessary to consider all possible outcomes of a situation. The strategy was designed to be followed in the event that installment is not received, as well as drop world prices for the metal.

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In case of delay in the IMF program, the National Bank will have to take the following measures:

  • To raise interest rates;
  • Mitigate the devaluation of the currency exchange rate by means of foreign exchange investments.

If you focus on negative outlook, it is already the end of the next, 2019 year, the price of the currency could reach retaliation in 39 hryvnia and 40 cents . This is precisely the figure given in the official document.

The good news is that such a scenario is not only for our country, in all their developed three:

  • According to the results of basic strategy, at the end of next year, the dollar's value is no more than 28 hryvnia and 70 cents;
  • Negative scenario considered in the case of not getting tranche and a sharp decline in the cost of metal, then the dollar will be worth almost 40 hryvnia;
  • The script, which provides only the absence of the tranche, but stable prices for the metal.

The National Bank was built not only for the prospects of the currency market, was carried out development of scenarios and other key economic indicators - inflation, GDP, international reserves. A separate forecast revealed that high probability of problems with the payment of the external debt

Experts say if the country does not receive tranche, it is waiting for not only the currency but the economic crisis, as well as problems in the banking system, the need for restructuring of external debt. In real GDP must be about 2.9% if not tranche, its resolution drops to 0.6%, but when metal prices fall it can generally achieve negative mark - 0.5%.

If the current time base of Ukraine's international reserves are 21.5 billion dollars, in the next they will be reduced to 19 billion, and is subject to availability of the tranche, without it figure drops to 9 billion, and the decrease in value of the metal will reduce the value of a further 1.6 billion. The documents contain a number of tasks, as well as a scheme by which the regulator must act, in the event of a situation.

What is fraught with failure of the IMF to Ukraine?

  1. Ukraine is no longer able to raise funds from the World Bank and the European Union.
  2. It is also unlikely that the state will continue to issue euro bonds in the period of 2018-2019 years, because international investors have lost interest in the debts of states, which are in the development stage.
  3. The first budget problems may occur as early as this year. In the absence of placing euro bonds, it is likely a sharp decline in the country's foreign currency account to zero, it can happen this summer. Then the authorities simply do not have two billion dollars in order to make the necessary commitments. On the one hand, this situation will require substantial resources in national currency, on the other - will inevitably wash away international reserves. If the investment still will be involved, there are chances that these problems can be postponed until the end of the year.
  4. Stop international support can cause panic among the population, and it is immediately displayed on the course of the national currency.
  5. The devaluation of the hryvnia will significantly strengthen its debt burden, both the government and the private sector is likely to require a new restructuring of the external debt, and it is already defaulted. He has a negative impact on the country's banking system.
  6. With the increasing pressure on the currency exchange rate and higher inflation, the National Bank will be forced to resort to tight monetary policy, and this has a negative impact on economic growth.

Alternative scenarios that have been developed by the National Bank:

  • In the context of financial market uncertainty and a possible appreciation of the currency volatility, it is necessary to restrain pressure on inflation and accumulate reserves. To do this, you must suspend the mitigation of foreign exchange restrictions, and to keep rates at a high level;
  • In terms of exchange rate devaluation no threat to financial stability, volatility will increase, but will remain reasonable. Then the bank should direct their actions to ensure that smooth out the volatility of the national currency exchange rate. To do this, increase the key rates, and provide moderation currency investments;
  • You may experience a liquidity crisis, the banking panic, if devalue the hryvnia significantly, as well as a significant outflow of capital, in the case where the volume of interventions to exceed the threshold. The main task of the National Bank - ensuring the functioning of the payment system and balance of the financial market as a whole.

If there is no support of the International Monetary Fund, the state will have serious problems with currency payments, and if take into consideration the risks, the term can not be called the iris. It remains optimistic that tranche still go to Ukraine, and many problems can be avoided.

Ps If you need to get financial aid, does not necessarily apply to the IMF)
to borrow money to pay or get a micro loan online can be one of the Ukrainian financial companies. And our website will help in choosing the best of them)

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ECONOMY: Khazin: ECONOMIC FORECASTS | RUSSIA KP

Portrait
Date of Birth

Khazin Mikhail Leonidovich (born May 5, 1962, Moscow, RSFSR, USSR.) - Russian economist, analyst, a political analyst, blogger, broadcaster and statistician. A former official of the Presidential Administration. Permanent member of the "Izborsk Club" [1] . Member of the Supreme Council of the International Eurasian Movement [2] . In May 2018 elected an academician of the International Academy of Management. He was one of the leading program "Dialogue" on RBC and was the presenter of the program "Economy in Russian" to "Russian news service". One of the leading program "Economics" at the radio station "Moscow speaking". Author of numerous publications in the "Profile" magazine, "Expert", "however". In repeatedly he acted as a guest expert on radio "Echo of Moscow", a television program "However" and various online channels.

Is the founder and regular contributor Khazin.ru website that hosts reviews of the state and forecasts of the global and Russian economy as well as geopolitical analyst.

In 2003, in collaboration with A. Kobyakov has written a book - "The Decline of the empire dollar and the end of the Pax Americana». In 2016 he published a book together with S.Scheglovym "Stairway to Heaven" on the issues of power devices. During the first year sold 30,000 copies in the paper version [ citation needed 433 days ] .

Mikhail Khazin was born in the family of a leading researcher of the Institute of Applied Mathematics RAS Leonid G. Khazin [1] . My father worked at the Institute of stability theory. Mother taught advanced mathematics at the Institute of Electronic Engineering. Grandfather Khazin Gregory Leizerovich received the Stalin Prize in 1949 [3] for their participation in the creation of the Moscow air defense system [4] with the official wording "for the development of new equipment." Younger brother Mikhail Khazin - Academician of the Russian Academy of Arts Andrei Khazin [5] .

Hazin was born in Moscow on May 5, 1962, he graduated from the mathematics class of the 179th school. By his own admission, he wanted to study at the Moscow State University [4] , but in 1979 he enrolled in the Yaroslavl State University. In the second year he transferred to the Mechanics and the Faculty of Mathematics and graduated in 1984, specialty statistics (Department of probability theory) [1] [6] . On the distribution was in Institute of Physical Chemistry Alan Grivtsova, where from 1984 to 1989 was engaged in the theoretical basis of applications of chemical physics. On the site the PN Lebedev Physical Institute. Lebedev presented the summary of several papers on statistical physics Khazin [ the relevant facts? ] [7] [8] .

After that Khazin worked for two years in the USSR, the State Statistics Committee Statistics Institute under the direction of Emile Ershov [4] . In 1992 he headed the analytical ELBIM Bank department and passed the civil service in 1993. In 1993-1994, he was a member of the working Khazin Center for Economic Reforms under the Government of Russia. Since 1994 he worked in the Ministry of Economy, led by Credit Policy Department of the Ministry in 1995-1997 [1] [6] . According Khazin, in 1996 he was to become the Deputy Minister (at that time the Ministry was headed by Yevgeny Yasin), but blocked the appointment of first deputy Yassin - Jacob Urinson. According to Mikhail Leonidovich, disagreements with Urinson arisen due to report Khazin [9] prepared for the November Board of the Ministry of Economy of non-payments, which Hazin stated that "monetary contraction in the Russian conditions does not lead to a reduction in inflation and an increase in" [4] . From 1997 to June 1998 - Deputy Head of the Economic Department of the President of Russia. Became a State Councilor of the Russian class III retired [1] . Khazin believes that he was dismissed from the public service "for the categorical unwillingness to compromise," and adds that after his dismissal he was "ten years was restricted to leave" [4] .

From 1998 to 2000 - a private consultant, then until 2002 he worked in the audit and consulting company "Modern business technologies", c the end of 2002 - the president of the company "Neocon" expert advice [1] [6] , which specializes in strategic forecasting and connections with state structures [10] . At the same time Khazin, together with Oleg Grigoriev Andrei Kobyakov and developed the theory of the current economic crisis [1] , which is reflected in the book "The Decline of the empire dollar and the end of the Pax Americana», published in collaboration with Kobyakov in 2003 [11] .

Since the autumn of 2002 until the spring of 2015 was the president of "Company of expert advice" Neocon "." In 2015 he founded the "Economic Research Foundation Mikhail Khazin" [12] .

Mikhail Khazin, is also a member of the Public Council of the Federal Tariff Service (FTS of Russia) [14] .

In August 2015 the SBU contributed Khazin in the list of cultural figures whose actions pose a threat to national security of Ukraine [15] .

In 2016 came a political party "Rodina" and participated in the elections to the State Duma in 2016.

Describing their work in the public service, Khazin said he believed the main task "to understand how to really arranged the economy, and fix problems in the way of economic growth" in Russia. Khazin says that in October 1997, the Economic Management sent to the President a report that predicted the development of the crisis in Russia in the summer of 1998 when the current at the time of financial and economic policies [4] .

In its forecasts published annually Khazin consistently develops the theme of the imminent global economic crisis. Its main theses are the impossibility of continuing to stimulate final demand and expanding markets, the fall of the financial and economic indicators, the decline in the division of labor and the collapse of the global economy for a few currency areas.

Khazin, together with the head of the economic department of management Oleg Grigoriev after leaving government service continued to study the causes of default [11] . In 2001, the United States studying interdisciplinary balance, Grigoriev put forward the concept of technological areas. By year end, the main points of the theory were already formulated and visible scale of the expected crisis. Khazin himself sees the main problem of the crisis of the middle class loss, which is the basis of social and political stability of society [4] . The main cause of crisis Khazin said exhaustion final demand usugublonnoe excessive stimulation of consumer demand and uncontrolled emission dollar [6] .

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After the crisis, on assumption Khazin, the US dollar will cease to be a global currency, and will be the regional, the other regional currencies will become the euro and the yuan; it is also possible - the Indian rupee, the dinar, ruble and some currency in Latin America [6] .

Khazin spoke out against Russia's joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). He expressed his position at the V International Congress "Open Russia: Partnership for Modernization" March 25, 2011 [16] .

RBC TV [17] , magazines "Expert" and "Results", slon.ru [18] , "Izvestia" newspaper [19] and "Komsomolskaya Pravda" [20] , the Interfax Information Services Group [16] , at different times Hazin called well-known Russian economist. According to Professor Dmitry Ognev, performances Hazin combined living language and availability for the general public [21] . Khazin actively opposes the ideology of neoliberalism [ source not specified 371 days ] , plays the role of economic "Cassandra" [ what? ] Globalization and the global financial system. He consistently promotes the idea that the West and the US-centric system of the global economy are doomed to objective reasons capitalism limbs [22] .

In 2000, in the journal "Expert" published an article [23] Khazin and Grigorieva, in which they gave a forecast of the economic crisis in the United States, expected in the same year and which leads to a drop in the world's average consumption of 1.5-3 times [1] .

September 10, 2001 on the forum "Expert" magazine predicted that the financiers of "Wall Street" to obtain control over the Bush administration can organize terrorist attacks against the United States [24] .

In October 2008, Hazin described long and large-scale nature of the global financial crisis, it is estimated, resulting from his theory, he predicted, "there is a fear of major terrorist attacks. Like the fact that they (the United States), organized in 2001 ... as a result of the US economy is reduced by at least third. The world will fall by 20 percent after this planet expect 10-12 years of heavy depression. In the US and Europe, I think many will be living from hand to mouth. A car becomes a luxury item " [11] . Explaining these words in an interview with Posner, Khazin says deliberate refocusing threads that he needed to challenge the dominant while "liberal" idea of the unshakable state of the US economy as a "city on a hill" [25] .

At the end of 2009, speaking to the Ural businessmen Khazin predicted that the current global economic system will inevitably collapse today, the middle class will cease to exist, the WTO collapse in 2-3 years, but in Russia, thanks to this, a chance of survival - because all countries will soon have to start from scratch [26] .

The forecast for 2012 predicted Khazin "the beginning of a powerful issue in the United States, which is almost impossible to avoid. More precisely, it is possible in the case of monetary policy tightening, but before the US elections, this scenario is unlikely. So, as soon as the issue of launch (at the latest - in the early summer of 2012, so that it can have a positive impact on the result of the US presidential election, Obama, of course), energy prices sharply and strongly grow - perhaps up to 150 $ 200 per barrel. At this point, many in the Russian elite and managers will be feeling that happiness is back, but this prosperity will last very long. Then, after 3-5 months, will begin a powerful wave of inflation " [27] .

In 2013, Hazin made a prediction about the development of Kazakhstan's economy: "I think, be able to maintain 5-7% growth even against the backdrop of the global recession. A global economy is "fall" as "dropped" in the United States at the time of the Great Depression - by about 30-35%. GDP in Japan and the European Union "fall" by about 50%. US GDP "will fall" somewhere in the 55% -60% " [28] .

Khazin regularly performs as a master or a visiting expert program "Russian News Service" and "Echo of Moscow" radio station [5] . According to 2013, he headed the top-7 invited guests of radio "Echo of Moscow" [29] , often appearing in the "Credibility" program, and was the most popular leading RDA [30] with the program "Economy in Russian" ( in the last edition in 2013, it was announced his departure from the program [31] ). Khazin performs regularly in the genre of "answers to audience questions live" and give comments on the topic of the day on the RDA [32] and "Echo of Moscow" [33] . Khazin was also repeated guest of "Vis with the world" program on the radio Voice of Russia [34] [35] .

In 2007, he led Khazin transfer "five on the economy" on the TV channel Spas, which was the only weekly economic program on Russian television at the time [36] . As part of this program took Khazin hour interview with Lyndon LaRouche, which aired May 18, 2007 and was widely discussed on the Internet [36] [37] . In 2011, RBC-TV has launched a series of programs, which were leading Viktor Gerashchenko, Mikhail Khazin and Sergey Aleksashenko. Attracting well-known economists, according to RBC Holding's opinion, possible to expand the audience of the channel [17] . Khazin led the program "Conversation with Mikhail Khazin." Hazin is also one of the experts of TV program "However" at the Channel.

Khazin article printed in many newspapers and magazines, including the "Komsomolskaya Pravda", "Expert". Until 2009, he was one of the authors of the magazine "Profil", since 2009 - the magazine "However," [5] [38] . Khazin repeatedly communicated with readers of the newspaper "Arguments and Facts", to make predictions and answer questions [6] . Interview with Khazin and quotes his speeches were published in the media outside Russia: Lithuania [39] , Azerbaijan [40] and Ukraine [41] . Hazin is one of the authors of the information and analytical services, "Russian folk line" [42] .

Mikhail Khazin keeps a blog [43] and was a founder and regular contributor to the website Worldcrisis.ru (later moved to Khazin.ru), is hosting reviews of the state and forecasts of world development, and the Russian economy. Also has a number of publications on the economy in the Russian scientific journals included in the list of HAC, presentations at international conferences (see. Below).

Academician Sergei Glazyev named Mikhail Khazin one of the specialists who, long before the global economic crisis that began in 2008, he predicted in his works [44] .

Doctor of Economics, Vladislav Inozemtsev, in an article in the "Gazette" compares the work Khazin and founder of the American private intelligence-analytical center Stratfor George Friedman, thus evaluates them as "fantastic nonsense" [45] .

In his review of the book "The Decline of the empire dollar and the end of the Pax Americana» Pavel Bykov says a huge amount of background information, a systematic exposition and profoundly elaborated. He notes that the authors present their vision of the history of the US economy, which is accompanied by a forecast of further developments with a variety of scenarios [46] .

In early 2009, a columnist for Forbes magazine Leonid Bershidsky believed that "economic forecasts Khazin, over which the mainstream economists scoffed, recently tended to come true, starting to listen, not only to him but also to those whom he advertises - media even more unambiguous ethical judgments " [47] .

In 2009, in the newspaper "Special Letter" published an article Khazin "After three years in Eastern Europe will start hunger" [48] . Vladislav Inozemtsev, in a special interview criticized the article Khazin, noting that in the article, "there is some truth and some exaggeration, very serious." So, Inozemtsev notes a number of incorrect statements Khazin, in particular the United States after the war, bought more than they sold, and that in Eastern Europe in three years will be hungry. Last judgment Khazin Inozemtsev attributes "symbiosis alarmism and incompetence" [49] .

Publishing in early 2010 interview with Khazin, the Forbes magazine correspondent Anna Sokolova notes that forecasts Hazin 2009, in which he predicted oil at $ 25 a barrel, the dollar 45 rubles and millions of unemployed clerks streets of Moscow, did not materialize. Mikhail Khazin explains the increase in the age of the crisis of political and human factors and the impossibility of obtaining such conditions accurate predictions purely economic methods. Sokolova believes that the "terrible forecasts" helped Hasina fame, and since the beginning of the crisis the number of mentions of his name in the press has increased six-fold [50] .

In December 2016 the Union of Journalists of Kazakhstan handed Michael Hasina gold medal of this organization [51] .

Journalist of "Izvestia" newspaper Eugene Arsyukhin, let alone forecasts Khazin, notes that in January 2008 he was wrong in his assertions, referring to the gradual weakening of the dollar and a lot of anticipation of crises, but still abroad, and most importantly - without waiting for the oil decline. The official forecast for the year 2009, he is more reserved and did not give the exact wording, except for one: "we will see the first stage of the unit, and then more and more frequent sovereign defaults," which also did not happen [19] .

The article in 2013 in the Forbes economic commentator Boris Grozovsky estimates Khazin, as the author of "catastrophic forecasts", which is ridiculous to argue, and compares them with the theses of the American economist Kotlikoff who believes "mad" [52] .

  • Khazin ML Foreword to the publication in Russian of the book "This time everything will be different. Eight centuries of financial folly "- Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff [trans. from English. D.Storozhenko]. - M .: Career Press, 2011. - 528 p. - ISBN 978-5-904946-02-9.
  • ML Khazin, collective monograph. "The subject of economic science and the evolution of the economy: reality and dilemma" (Chapter 3), State Maritime University named after Admiral Ushakov F.F, 2014 to -194.
  • ML Khazin, collective monograph. "The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system as a tool of globalization. What's next? " (Chapter 9), Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation , 2017 -154 c.- 1000 copies.
  • Khazin ML "Black Swan global crisis" - Palmyra, 2017. - 415 p. - (PRO power). - 3000 copies.

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